Ahmedabad Times

ET Intelligence Group: Upstream oil and fuel producers are anticipated to publish robust earnings development within the March quarter, pushed by a pointy rise in crude oil costs, whereas downstream oil advertising corporations (OMCs) and metropolis fuel distribution companies are more likely to report weaker outcomes. Analysts anticipate working revenue earlier than depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for upstream corporations to rise 6-49% quarter-on-quarter whereas income could develop 17-22%. For OMCs, Ebitda is projected to say no 8-50% sequentially although income is predicted to extend 17%-30%, reflecting margin stress.

Brent crude averaged round $81 per barrel within the March 2026 quarter, up practically 28% sequentially, boosting internet crude realisations for producers. Nomura Monetary Advisory and Securities expects Ebitda for ONGC and Oil India to extend 23% and 49% respectively from the earlier quarter. Upstream corporations are anticipated to register marginal declines in oil and fuel manufacturing and gross sales volumes, primarily attributable to pure subject decline and upkeep shutdowns. Nevertheless, this shall be greater than offset by larger crude costs.

OMCs corresponding to Indian Oil Company (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Company (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Company (HPCL) are anticipated to register sequential earnings stress attributable to decrease product realisations as gasoline costs remained steady regardless of a spike in crude costs. The weighted common gross advertising margins on auto-fuel dropped sharply to about ‘1.7 per litre within the March quarter from ‘5.2 per litre in December quarter. It was additionally effectively under the historic common of round ‘3.5 per litre, famous JM Monetary Institutional Securities in a report.

LPG under-recoveries for OMCs are more likely to rise quarter-on-quarter to round ‘10,000 crore within the March quarter from about ‘1,900 crore within the prior quarter on account of a pointy rise in international LPG costs as a result of ongoing provide disruption attributable to struggle in West Asia.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects HPCL’s Ebitda to fall 51% quarter-on-quarter within the March quarter, whereas BPCL and IOC are more likely to report declines of 28% and 22%, respectively.

Brokerages anticipate the earnings of oil-to-chemical phase of Reliance Industries to say no by larger crude value, rise in cargo and insurance coverage value, losses within the retail gasoline phase, diversion of propane to supply LPG, and enhance in costs of Naphtha, a significant feedstock.
Fuel utilities and metropolis fuel distribution (CGD) corporations are anticipated to report a tender quarter hit by LNG provide disruptions by way of the Strait of Hormuz, larger spot LNG costs and rupee depreciation. India’s total fuel demand within the March quarter is estimated to have declined round 10% sequentially, as LNG imports have been disrupted. This weighed on volumes and profitability throughout the fuel worth chain. GAIL’s Ebitda is predicted to drop 12-38% sequentially, led by weaker fuel buying and selling margins, decrease transmission quantity and losses in petrochemicals.