Nifty’s 2 pillars now going through structural headwinds: Ravi Dharamshi’s warning on IT & consumption
“The index is inherently backward-looking and doesn’t adequately seize most of the rising sectors which are driving incremental development,” Dharamshi instructed ET Markets in an interview. “The index tells you the place the market has been. The chance lies in the place the economic system goes.”
His warning carries weight. ValueQuest has been quietly repositioning for months by shifting capital away from consumption-oriented exposures and steering away from IT companies completely, even earlier than the geopolitical shock that roiled markets over the previous two months.
The Structural Drawback With the Two Pillars
Dharamshi argues that IT companies is within the early levels of AI-led structural disruption — not a brief demand lull, however a elementary reshaping of the sector’s enterprise mannequin. Consumption, in the meantime, is struggling as a second-order casualty of the identical transition: as IT employment and revenue development gradual, discretionary spending softens downstream.
“IT is coping with AI-led disruption, whereas consumption is a second-order spinoff of the identical slowdown, as revenue development and job creation regulate to this transition,” he mentioned. “Whereas headline valuations might seem cheap, they do not absolutely mirror the dispersion beneath.”
This creates a troubling optics downside for traders counting on index-level reads. Obvious reasonableness on the prime degree hides deteriorating fundamentals within the parts which have traditionally pushed Nifty’s returns.
Warfare, Crude Oil, and a 3–4% Earnings Downgrade
The geopolitical disaster has added a second layer of strain. Dharamshi estimates the continued battle might shave 3–4 proportion factors off FY27 earnings development, bringing expectations down from 16–17% to roughly 12–13%. The Union Finances had implicitly assumed crude at round $70 as oil has since moved nearer to $90 for the total yr.
“Aside from larger crude and commodity costs, we’re additionally seeing provide chain disruptions, elevated logistics prices, and strain on authorities funds,” he mentioned. “Importantly, this shock comes at a time when India was on the cusp of a cyclical restoration, which makes the timing unlucky.”
If crude sustains close to $100, Dharamshi flags dangers that go properly past headline inflation. The actual stress, he cautions, is in sectors like chemical compounds, prescribed drugs, fertilisers, and agrochemicals which are closely depending on crude derivatives for his or her enter prices. Gasoline availability has emerged as a parallel constraint.
“Crude is not only an inflation variable — it’s a provide chain variable. And that is the place the second-order impression turns into way more disruptive,” he mentioned.
The place ValueQuest Has Been Shifting Cash
Towards this backdrop, Dharamshi’s agency has been decisively reallocating into power transition, defence and aerospace, AI infrastructure enablers, and grid capex performs. The thesis is {that a} fragmented, security-conscious world will structurally reward nations and corporations that construct arduous property and self-reliant capability.
“This isn’t a short-term commerce; it’s a structural reallocation of capital globally, and India is a key beneficiary,” he mentioned.
On manufacturing and electronics manufacturing companies, an area that has seen sharp corrections after earlier enthusiasm, Dharamshi stays constructive however selective. He believes the cycle is shifting from assembly-led development, which drove narratives but additionally valuation excesses, towards deeper part manufacturing and value-chain integration.
“Meeting builds volumes. Elements construct income. And that cycle is simply getting began,” he mentioned.
On information centres, Dharamshi sees one among India’s most important funding alternatives of the last decade. From a present base of roughly 1.5 GW, introduced tasks might take capability to eight–10 GW within the close to time period, scaling to round 15 GW by 2032–33 — representing roughly $150 billion in cumulative capex. His most well-liked play is thru the enablers: energy tools, grid infrastructure, and electrical parts.
“The actual cash in a gold rush is never made by the miners — it is made by these promoting the instruments,” he mentioned.
The FII Query
On the query of overseas institutional investor returns, Dharamshi says peace would probably set off tactical inflows and short-covering as India is meaningfully under-owned however sustained capital flows require greater than geopolitical calm.
He flags a structural drawback: FPI flows into India are taxed, not like in most different main markets, making a persistent competitiveness hole. With out coordinated coverage motion to draw overseas capital throughout equities, bonds, FDI, and NRI deposits, the loop of FPI outflows, rupee depreciation, inflation, and widening deficits dangers changing into self-reinforcing.
“Flows do not chase peace alone — they chase development, stability, and ease of capital motion. Repair these, and flows will observe,” he mentioned.
The Medium-Time period View: Earnings Dispersion, Not Index Returns
Beneath the warning, Dharamshi’s structural outlook for India stays intact. Company stability sheets are deleveraged. A personal sector capex cycle remains to be forward. RoE growth, he argues, is a multi-year story — one which markets will look by way of near-term macro disruption to cost in.
“Within the brief time period, macros will dominate headlines; within the medium time period, earnings dispersion will dominate returns,” he mentioned.
For traders nonetheless anchored to the Nifty, that earnings dispersion is the core threat. The pillars that constructed the index might not be the pillars that drive its subsequent chapter.
“If this cycle is about constructing actual property,” Dharamshi mentioned, “we wish to be proudly owning the pipes, not the paint.”
