NBFCs and personal banks higher positioned than PSU banks: Aman Chowhan
Aman Chowhan stated monsoon issues are usually not a serious threat for earnings at this stage, however crude oil stays the dominant macro variable. He famous that even in a state of affairs the place geopolitical tensions ease, oil costs might stay elevated, maintaining strain on company earnings. “Monsoon just isn’t a giant fear. A weak monsoon might have some influence. The larger situation is crude oil. Even when there’s a take care of Iran, oil can keep round 80. That’s the actual threat.” He added that the influence of upper oil costs is prone to present up extra clearly in upcoming quarters. “March quarter was tremendous attributable to stock. June will present the influence. We see a 100–200 bps hit from greater oil costs.”
On the earnings outlook for FY27, Chowhan stated visibility stays restricted and firms themselves are nonetheless assessing the influence. “Earnings revision is but to occur. Firms themselves are not sure of the influence. We’ll know extra in a number of weeks.” He added that the important thing strain level is prone to be margins reasonably than demand. “The danger is extra on margins than topline. Demand is holding up nicely.”
On portfolio positioninghe stated allocation has shifted towards defensive and structural themes, particularly in a excessive crude oil atmosphere. “We’re shopping for renewables—photo voltaic, wind, ethanol. That may be a key theme.” He additionally highlighted elevated publicity to pharma and home manufacturing as most well-liked areas for incremental funding.
On the IT sectorChowhan remained cautious regardless of latest corrections, citing structural issues round synthetic intelligence and valuations. “We exited IT six months in the past. No hurry to re-enter. Upside is restricted.” He stated AI-led effectivity enhancements might problem India’s conventional low-cost benefit, maintaining valuation multiples beneath strain. “AI will enhance effectivity, however it pressures India’s low-cost mannequin. Valuations might keep beneath strain.”
On consumption, he maintained a constructive view on demand however flagged near-term margin strain attributable to rising enter prices, significantly metals. “Demand is robust. We like discretionary and durables.” Nonetheless, he added that greater steel costs might weigh on profitability within the brief time period.
On different sectors, he stated capital market-linked companies similar to wealth and broking stay engaging attributable to sturdy enterprise fashions, whereas infrastructure has turned impartial attributable to fiscal pressures arising from greater oil costs. “Infra is impartial attributable to fiscal strain from greater oil.”In financialsChowhan stated fundamentals stay wholesome however international institutional investor (FII) promoting continues to weigh on sentiment. “Banking is sweet, however FII promoting is a headwind.” Inside the house, he continues to favor NBFCs and personal banks over PSU banks.
He additionally highlighted FCNR inflows as a supportive issue for the foreign money, noting that engaging yields might draw significant international inflows. “FCNR inflows are constructive for the rupee. Returns could be engaging, even 12–15% with leverage.”
On tactical alternatives, Chowhan pointed to chemicalsdefence, and choose engineering shares as areas of curiosity, supported by foreign money advantages and relative valuation consolation.
