Iran-Israel-US ‘triangle entice’: Decoding India’s stance amid rising Center East tensions | India Information
Is New Delhi recalibrating its method to West Asia? The query has resurfaced after India’s notably cautious response to the newest escalation involving Iran. When america and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, triggering retaliatory missile assaults throughout the area, a number of world powers reacted swiftly. India, nevertheless, prevented taking a transparent place on Tehran.Within the essential hours after the escalation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t straight touch upon Iran. His first response got here almost a day later and centered as a substitute on assaults on the United Arab Emirates. Subsequent conversations with leaders throughout the Gulf emphasised respect for his or her territorial integrity and the necessity for de-escalation, however once more prevented straight naming Iran. Even after the loss of life of Iran’s Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei was confirmed, New Delhi stopped wanting condemning the killing, providing solely a condolence gesture days later.
Specialists describe this cautious method as deliberate and calculated. “India’s coverage has been very cautious. Its pursuits are way more aligned with the US than Iran. That explains why it condoled and didn’t condemn Khamenei’s killing, although it was a transparent violation of worldwide regulation,” mentioned JNU professor Rajan Kumar. He famous that although each India and Iran are BRICS members, New Delhi selected restraint over confrontation, highlighting the fragile balancing act in play.
How (When) India reacted on Iran battle
28 Feb: US-Israel assault Iran
The USA and Israel launch strikes on Iran amid negotiations between Washington and Tehran over its nuclear programme.Iran retaliates with missile and air assaults throughout the area, focusing on navy websites in Israel in addition to US bases in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes over 15 posts on his social media X after the information of the battle breaks out, however none of it on Iran scenario.
March 1: Khamenei’s loss of life confirmed
By midnight early March 1, the information that Iran Supreme Chief Ayatollah Khamenei is killed within the strikes will get confirmed.India, once more, sees no response on breach of Iran’s sovereignty or the killing of its Supreme Chief Khamenei, at the same time as its long-standing buddy Russia is fast to sentence it in sturdy phrases, with President Vladimir Putin calling it a “cynical violation of regulation”.The primary publish by PM Modi comes on March 1, his twenty fifth on his X account, at 11.26pm. The publish condemns “assault” on the UAE. The Prime Minister was referring to Iran’s retaliatory strikes on US navy bases in UAE, which had led to at least one loss of life. Nonetheless, he didn’t straight title Iran in his publish.By midnight, PM Modi makes one other publish the place he informs that he had a dialog with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he had two days earlier than the battle broke out. Within the publish, the PM once more makes no point out of Iran, however requires “early cessation of hostilities”.In a sequence of posts by the following day, PM Modi speaks to the leaders of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, condemning any violation of their territorial integrity. The PM was once more referring to the strikes on US navy bases in these nations by Iran in retaliation. India’s response to Khamenei’s loss of life got here 5 days after the incident. International secretary Vikram Misrisigned the “condolence” e-book within the Iranian embassy on behalf of the federal government. MEA dismissed this “delay” argument saying that the e-book was signed by India the primary day it was opened, which was on March 5. Nonetheless, MEA’s clarification failed to elucidate why the federal government itself took 5 days after the incident to formally convey its condolences.PM Modi’s response to Iran got here solely on March 12 when he spoke to Iranian president. The wording of the publish was clear: “The security and safety of Indian nationals, together with the necessity for unhindered transit of products and power, stay India’s prime priorities.” No condemnation or solidarity.
India didn’t condemn the loss of life, neither did the PM or EAM make any direct feedback on the killing. Then what explains this refusal to sentence the killing?Specialists have termed it a “very cautious and really cautious” transfer.“India’s coverage has been very cautious and really cautious. Its pursuits are rather more aligned with US than Iran. Possibly that is why it condoled and never condemned Khameinei’s loss of life, whereas it was Khamenei’s loss of life which was truly a violation of worldwide regulation, mentioned JNU professor Rajan Kumar, a world relations skilled.“In truth, each Iran and India are members of Brics, nonetheless India selected to not condemn the assault,” he mentioned.
Why historic Iran ties make present restraint notable
India’s traditionally shut engagement with Iran makes this warning notable. The 2 nations share civilisational hyperlinks stretching again centuries, which have formed a contemporary partnership constructed on commerce, tradition and strategic cooperation. Diplomatic ties had been formalised with a Friendship Treaty in 1950, and successive governments in New Delhi invested in sustaining sturdy political engagement with Tehran.Leaders from the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP) had been additionally central to strengthening these ties prior to now. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s go to to Iran in 2001 led to the signing of the Tehran Declaration, marking a brand new part of strategic cooperation. This was adopted by Iranian President Seyyed Mohammad Khatami’s go to to India in 2003 and the New Delhi Declaration, which expanded political and financial engagement between the 2 nations.Below Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the connection continued to see high-level outreach. Modi’s 2016 go to to Iran resulted in a number of agreements and the trilateral transit pact with Afghanistan centred on the event of Chabahar Port, a challenge seen as strategically vital for India’s connectivity to Central Asia. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s go to to India in 2018 additional strengthened cooperation in connectivity and commerce.
So, what explains this shift away from Iran?
Analysts level to a mixture of speedy safety issues and long-term financial dependencies which have pushed New Delhi to undertake a extra cautious posture within the present West Asia disaster.A significant factor is the security of the big Indian diaspora throughout the Gulf. References to the Indian group appeared constantly in Prime Minister Modi’s statements on the unfolding battle. There are over one crore Indians who work and dwell in Gulf nations, exterior affairs minister S Jaishankar knowledgeable the Parliament on Monday. This, he mentioned, makes the West Asia battle much more regarding for India. He knowledgeable that India has already misplaced two of its mariners, with one lacking within the present scenario. “We’re dedicated to supporting the Indian group at the moment,” Jaishankar mentioned within the Parliament.Furthermore, India is considerably depending on Gulf provides, particularly in power sector. The important thing economicconcerns embody:Oil: India exports almost 40% of crude oil from Gulf. In 2025, it sourced round $70 billion crude oil and petroleum merchandise from West Asia.LNG wants: The nation is closely depending on West Asia for LNG necessities. It sourced liquefied pure gasoline or LNG price $9.2 billion from West Asia, which is round 68.4% of its complete LNG imports.LPG: LPG imports from West Asia had been $13.9 billion in 2025, making up 46.9 % of India’s complete LPG purchases. Cities resembling Bengaluru, Mumbai and Chennai are seeing disruptions in industrial LPG provides as authorities prioritise home cooking gasoline for households.
Current closeness in the direction of Israel
For many years after independence, India’s coverage on Israel and Palestine was cautious. New Delhi supported the Palestinian trigger and infrequently voted with Arab nations in worldwide boards, even voting in opposition to Israel’s admission to the United Nations. On the identical time, India recognised Israel in 1950 and maintained restricted contact whereas presenting itself as impartial. India later grew to become the primary non-Arab nation to recognise the State of Palestine in 1988 and established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992 after consultations with Yasser Arafat, chief of the Palestine Liberation Group.Relations with Israel started increasing step by step after the Chilly Conflict, notably in defence and commerce. Nonetheless, earlier governments typically saved the connection comparatively low-key to keep away from upsetting Arab companions or showing to maneuver away from India’s conventional help for the Palestinian trigger.A extra seen shift got here after Narendra Modi grew to become prime minister in 2014. Below his authorities, India’s ties with Israel grew extra open and politically distinguished. Defence cooperation elevated and bilateral commerce expanded, with each nations emphasising shared safety issues and technological cooperation.In 2017, PM Modi grew to become the primary Indian prime minister to go to Israel, marking a symbolic turning level within the relationship. Through the journey, he was warmly acquired by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and pictures of the 2 leaders strolling collectively on Ogla seaside grew to become extensively circulated, highlighting the brand new heat in ties.
PM Modi’s 2017 Israel go to: PM with Israeli counterpart at Ogla seasideThe closeness between the 2 governments has continued lately to some extent the place PM Modi was in Israel merely two days earlier than Israel attacked Iran with the US.Referring to Israel because the “fatherland” and India because the “motherland”, PM Modi’s go to got here at a time when Israel confronted intense worldwide criticism over its navy marketing campaign in Gaza, which has killed greater than 60,000 Palestinians in accordance with varied estimates. “The timing of it was clearly fallacious. The coverage makers didn’t count on that to occur very quickly. That despatched a really fallacious optics from a balanced coverage perspective,” professor Rajan mentioned.The battle has additionally drawn renewed scrutiny of Netanyahu’s management, with critics and a few worldwide authorized our bodies describing him as accountable for alleged battle crimes.The shift underneath PM Modi displays each ideological and strategic components. The Bharatiya Janata Social gathering has lengthy been seen as extra brazenly supportive of Israel than earlier governments. On the identical time, India sees Israel as a key accomplice in defence expertise, intelligence cooperation and innovation. Because of this, India’s West Asia coverage as we speak makes an attempt to stability nearer ties with Israel whereas persevering with to precise help for Palestinian statehood.
PM Modi’s 2026 Israel go to: Netanyahu mentioning ‘saffron match’ between PM Modi and SaraNonetheless, professor Rajan mentioned that India’s coverage shouldn’t be “fully decided by Israel”, slightly, presently, it’s extra involved about “offending” the US.“India’s coverage shouldn’t be fully decided by Israel. Sure, Israel is a vital accomplice however prior to now additionally we now have pursued our ties with Israel with out damaging our relationships with different nations,” he mentioned.“India is primarily involved about offending the US. At the moment, it will not wish to offend the Trump administration. And that’s precisely why it’s not issuing any statements condemning of killing of Khamenei,” he mentioned.
So, is there a shift?
Rajan Kumar, a professor at JNU, who teaches worldwide relations mentioned that presently, there isn’t a shift in India’s coverage in the direction of the Center East. Quite, he mentioned, that the shift may occur after the battle is over.“In the meanwhile, I don’t see any shift taking place. It’s a continuation of coverage the place India’s most popular accomplice was United States and Israel. However on the identical time commerce ties had been linked with many different nations within the area,” he mentioned.“So, a shift shouldn’t be obvious for the time being, but it surely may occur after the result of the occasion. As a result of if India thinks that Iran stays an vital half and if the regime survives, it would pursue a special technique. But when US wins, which may be very unlikely, if the regime survives, resistance persists, it would have a special technique. Now, India is pursuing a wait-and-watch coverage in West Asia,” he added.Nonetheless, he added that there was a necessity for India to go for a coverage of multipolarity, slightly than unipolarity underneath the affect of Israel and the US.Specialists argue that India ought to embrace multipolarity in West Asia, slightly than a unipolar tilt towards Israel and the US. Whereas Israel is a beneficial accomplice, destabilizing relationships with different West Asian nations might jeopardize India’s financial and safety pursuits within the area.“India ought to pursue multipolarity, slightly unipolarity underneath the affect of Israel and US in West Asia. Though we now have good ties with Israel, we can not de-stabilise our ties with different West Asian nations, given that our financial and safety pursuits are aligned there,” he mentioned.