Funding the ‘mom of all cycles’: Chris Wooden cuts Indian shares to double down on South Korean chip giants
Wooden describes the continuing AI build-out as “essentially the most dramatic capex cycle Greed & Concern has ever seen,” with hyperscalers and foundries ramping up spending at an unprecedented tempo. In opposition to that backdrop, he’s explicitly “going to have to extend publicity to tech {hardware} within the varied Greed & Concern portfolios,” including SK Hynix and Kioxia to his world long-only ebook and rising the weighting in Samsung Electronics.
Within the up to date world long-only portfolio, SK Hynix and Kioxia are included “with an preliminary 4% weighting every,” whereas the prevailing Samsung Electronics place is raised by one share level. “All which means that Greed & Concern goes to have to extend publicity to tech {hardware},” Wooden writes in his publication, emphasising that DRAM and NAND suppliers are on the coronary heart of the AI commerce three and a half years into the capex arms race.
Additionally Learn | Chris Wooden’s large warning: The particular threat that can lastly set off the tip of AI commerce
‘Mom of All Cycles’ and Jevons Paradox
The strategic shift is anchored in Wooden’s conviction that falling token prices will drive explosive progress in compute demand, not a bust in AI utilization. Citing Jevons Paradox, he argues that “falling token costs ought to result in rising DRAM costs,” as cheaper AI providers spur extra utilization and, in flip, larger consumption of reminiscence and bandwidth.
“So the elevated demand triggered by cheaper costs must be good for the picks and shovels performs, which have already been by far the principle beneficiaries of AI in inventory market phrases three and a half years into the AI capex arms race,” he notes, including that “for now at the least, there stays zero signal of AI capex slowing.” With AI-linked information centre funding driving boom-like circumstances in Taiwan and document export orders, Wooden views your entire provide chain, particularly DRAM, as central to what he calls “the mom of all cycles.”
Funding the Shift: India and Different Cuts
To fund this {hardware} tilt, Wooden is trimming publicity in India and different markets slightly than including total threat. Within the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, “an preliminary 4% shall be re-initiated in Hynix by eradicating PolicyBazaar,” whereas a one-percentage-point minimize to Alibaba helps finance an elevated stake in Samsung Electronics.
The India long-only portfolio additionally takes a success. “Lastly, within the India long-only portfolio, the funding in Ambuja Cements shall be eliminated, whereas the investments in GMR Airports, JSW Vitality and Adani Vitality Options shall be lowered by two share factors, one share level and one share level respectively,” the notice states.
These reallocations unencumber capital to deploy into the South Korean and Japanese reminiscence complicated, underscoring Wooden’s desire to fund the AI {hardware} commerce by rotating inside equities slightly than rising total publicity.
Wooden’s conviction rests closely on structural modifications within the DRAM trade and the evolving function of reminiscence in AI workloads. He highlights Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s assertion that “reminiscence has advanced from a peripheral part into the core engine driving productiveness within the AI period,” and factors to long-term strategic buyer agreements (SCAs) as proof of newfound pricing energy.
Micron has signed 16 SCAs overlaying roughly 20% of DRAM volumes and a 3rd of NAND volumes, sometimes with five-year phrases, signalling larger visibility and self-discipline throughout the trade. On valuations, Wooden argues that “the story that the DRAM trade has modified structurally, and that the businesses ought to now be valued on a price-to-earnings foundation slightly than on a price-to-book foundation, seems to be to Greed & Concern an more and more highly effective argument.” Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Micron, he notes, are buying and selling at 7.8x, 6.8x and 9.2x consensus 12-month ahead earnings respectively.
How the AI Growth May Finish
At the same time as he will increase publicity, Wooden is candid about what he sees because the defining threat of the AI commerce. “Greed & Concern is personally satisfied that issues about malinvestment would be the most certainly set off for an finish to the AI commerce, or at the least for a protracted pause to refresh, given the massive quantities now being spent by the principle gamers,” he writes.
He warns that the “essential threat to the picks and shovels story stays a sudden realisation by buyers that hyperscalers and the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic won’t be able to generate returns on their funding,” which might abruptly curtail funding for AI capex. Round preparations, equivalent to Nvidia financing OpenAI so the latter should buy extra Nvidia chips, might worsen that unwinding as soon as capital markets start to query long-term returns.
Portfolio Observe Document and Classes Discovered
Wooden additionally displays on previous positioning as he executes the newest reallocation. Within the world portfolio, he’s eradicating Alphabet and Alibaba to make room for SK Hynix and Kioxia, noting that Alphabet has risen 19% since its inclusion in November 2025, whereas Nvidia is up solely 3.3% since being dropped in October 2025.
“On this sense, the commerce labored. However clearly Greed & Concern would have completed higher to speculate extra in DRAM shares,” he concedes, underlining the lesson that reminiscence has been, and stays, essentially the most leveraged strategy to play the AI theme.
Nvidia, he provides, “appears to have been used because the funding brief by tech ‘pod’ platforms in latest months to wager on increased beta AI {hardware} performs,” additional illustrating how investor focus has shifted in the direction of part and capability suppliers. That rotation is now being mirrored in his personal mannequin portfolios as he cuts India-centric positions and different non-hardware names to double down on South Korean chip giants on the coronary heart of the AI capex cycle.
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