Hindu Kush Himalaya area to face drier monsoon, however threats of climate-induced hazards stay: New evaluation | India Information
THE HINDU Kush Himalaya (HKH) area, the supply of at the least 10 massive river basins in Asia, together with Ganga, Indus and Brahmaputra in India, is prone to witness below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures within the upcoming monsoon, in keeping with a brand new evaluation.
The mixture of beneath par rainfall, owing to the El Niño climate phenomenon, and rising temperatures can also be anticipated to extend drought in addition to hazard dangers from floods, glacial lake outbursts, and landslides, mentioned the findings of the HKH monsoon outlook revealed by the Worldwide Centre for Built-in Mountain Growth (ICIMOD) and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese language Academy of Sciences.
The HKH area is a mountain arc stretching 3,500 km throughout Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, China, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan. Dwelling to hundreds of glaciers and huge river basins equivalent to Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Irrawady, Mekong and Amu Darya, they help the meals and livelihood safety of about two billion folks on this area of Asia.
The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026, warned that decrease rainfall and hotter situations may even probably intensify warmth stress and scale back water availability. The outlook can also be essential for administrative administration as winter snow persistence (the time snow stays on the bottom) within the season that handed was beneath long-term common.
“Decrease snow persistence means the area is coming into the monsoon with a lowered seasonal water buffer,” mentioned Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.
Because of this communities throughout the area will rely extra on rainfall, groundwater and spring water availability. The monsoon outlook additionally highlighted that local weather change has intensified the area’s vulnerability to climate-induced hazards equivalent to excessive climate occasions.
“The outlook factors to a drier monsoon general, however that doesn’t imply decrease threat. Quick, intense rainfall occasions can nonetheless set off critical hazards,” Manish Shrestha, hydrologist at ICIMOD mentioned.
Story continues beneath this advert
The Hindu Kush Himalaya area
The HKH area is a mountain arc stretching 3,500 km throughout Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, China, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan. Dwelling to hundreds of glaciers and huge river basins equivalent to Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Irrawady, Mekong and Amu Darya, they help the meals and livelihood safety of about two billion folks on this area of Asia.
On the coronary heart of this 12 months’s bleak forecast is the anticipated return of El Niño. El Niño phenomenon is characterised by unusually heat sea floor temperatures within the central and jap tropical Pacific ocean, which disrupts world climate patterns, together with suppression of monsoon within the Indian sub-continent.
A number of seasonal forecasting businesses — together with the South Asian Local weather Outlook Discussion board (SASCOF-34), the Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation Local weather Centre, Copernicus Local weather Change Service, and the Worldwide Analysis Institute for Local weather and Society, have all projected situations within the Pacific Ocean transitioning from impartial to El Niño throughout the early monsoon interval, with these situations anticipated to persist by way of the season. Throughout an El Nino occasion, waters within the western pacific equatorial ocean heat
The HKH area is described as “extremely delicate” to El Niño, because it strongly shapes the South Asian monsoon, which accounts for practically 70-80% of the area’s annual rainfall. Traditionally, El Niño situations have suppressed monsoon rainfall throughout South Asia.
Compounding the image, Northern Hemisphere snow cowl was recorded barely beneath regular throughout January–March 2026 — a situation that’s inversely linked to subsequent monsoon power. Local weather fashions additionally recommend the potential emergence of a optimistic Indian Ocean Dipole later within the season, which might partially offset El Niño’s drying impact, although uncertainty stays. The India Meteorological Division has already predicted below-par monsoon this 12 months.
Story continues beneath this advert
Rising temperatures are additionally anticipated to speed up glacier soften and snowmelt, driving short-term spikes in river discharge and heightening GLOF (glacial lake outburst flood) threat.
