How BJP and Congress strategy election victory in a different way
NEW DELHI: The Congress lastly ended Kerala’s suspense on Wednesday. Ten days after the UDF’s historic mandate, VD Satheesan was named chief minister. For a celebration that had simply received 63 seats, with the UDF alliance successful 102, the delay was not about numbers or coalition arithmetic. It was in regards to the Congress being unable to get out of its personal method.Throughout the nation, in West Bengal, the BJP had carried out the identical factor in roughly 48 hours. 207 seats, a state received for the primary time within the occasion’s historical past, and Suvendu Adhikari was named CM earlier than the celebrations had correctly begun (or Mamata had resigned).
Related scenes performed out in Assam, the place the saffron occasion secured a thumping mandate. There was by no means a lot doubt over the BJP’s alternative for chief minister. Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has led the occasion to consecutive victories within the state, has additionally performed a key function in increasing the BJP’s footprint throughout the North East was the plain alternative.Additionally learn: How 2026 Assam win established ‘outsider’ Himanta as occasion’s next-gen chiefTwo events achieved historic victories in the identical election cycle, but they took fully completely different approaches afterward. One strikes as if it has carried out this earlier than. The opposite strikes like it’s battling internal turmoil even after securing a historic mandate.One occasion treats victory as the beginning of management; the opposite typically treats it as the beginning of negotiation.So, what does the BJP perceive about successful that the Congress retains having to relearn?
The BJP’s favorite trick
The BJP’s strategy to selecting chief ministers since 2014 has adopted a transparent sample. When the occasion wins a state, it typically avoids choosing the plain frontrunner. As a substitute, it offers the highest publish to somebody who will not be well-known exterior the state however has labored on the grassroots stage or intently with the native management.The concept behind this technique is easy. It prevents regional strongmen from changing into too highly effective. It additionally ensures that the victory is seen as a mandate for the occasion and its central management, not for a neighborhood chief. On the similar time, it sends a message to occasion staff that loyalty to the organisation issues greater than private ambition.The observe document backs this up. When the BJP received Haryana in 2014, it went with Manohar Lal Khattar, a first-time MLA. When it changed Vijay Rupani in Gujarat in 2021, Bhupendra Patel, one other first-term MLA, obtained the job. In December 2023, after sweeping Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP despatched a transparent message about its altering management mannequin. Regardless of delivering main victories, veterans Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh had been all handed over for the highest job. As a substitute, the occasion selected comparatively low-profile leaders, Bhajan Lal Sharma, Mohan Yadav and Vishnu Deo Sai, signalling its desire for contemporary faces over entrenched regional heavyweights. Add Tripura’s Biplab Deb, Uttarakhand’s Pushkar Singh Dhami, Manipur’s N Biren Singh and Tripura’s Manik Saha to the record. These weren’t family names exterior their states. Nonetheless, they had been chosen to manipulate quietly below the BJP’s nationwide banner whereas the central management held the actual reins.The BJP does typically permit robust regional leaders to emerge. Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh is the clearest instance; leaders like Devendra Fadnavis, who’ve labored within the RSS ecosystem for many years, had been additionally rewarded with the highest publish. However that often occurs after the occasion is already firmly established there.
What Congress does as a substitute
Earlier than moving into why these Assam and Bengal instances differ from the occasion’s regular strategy, it’s value taking a look at what the BJP’s tightly managed chief minister choice course of is designed to keep away from: extended public energy struggles after an electoral win.That distinction was seen after Karnataka in 2023, when the Indian Nationwide Congress spent days in an open tussle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. Each leaders lobbied legislators, each made their case to Delhi, and the interior contest performed out in full public view. Siddaramaiah finally turned chief minister, whereas Shivakumar was accommodated as deputy; nonetheless, their rivalry continues to make headlines even at this time.It was additionally not an remoted episode. After successful Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2018, the Congress turned every victory right into a drawn-out negotiation over management. In Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia had been locked in a bitter contest for management. In Rajasthan, the feud between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot lasted longer than the federal government itself, almost bringing it down in 2020.Now, in Could 2026, the identical drama performed out in Kerala. The Congress-led United Democratic Entrance received an enormous victory, taking 102 seats within the 140-member meeting, with the Congress alone successful 63. However even after such a transparent mandate, the occasion took ten days to announce V. D. Satheesan because the state’s new chief minister, whereas different states that went to the polls had already named their CMs. The competition had narrowed to a few names: AICC common secretary KC Venugopal, chief of the opposition within the meeting VD Satheesan and senior chief Ramesh Chennithala. Intense lobbying, competing camps and differing views throughout the occasion reportedly extended the method, whilst different states that went to the polls had already finalised their chief ministers. Conferences between Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge and senior Congress leaders continued deep into the week, whereas the extended uncertainty triggered memes, on-line mockery and rising frustration amongst occasion staff.When the announcement lastly got here, Satheesan had lengthy gave the impression to be the plain frontrunner.
Himanta first, then Suvendu
So why did the BJP break from its personal playbook in each Assam and Bengal?The reply is easier than it seems: it didn’t, actually. The playbook was by no means about choosing unknown faces. It was about choosing individuals who wouldn’t overshadow the central management or construct impartial energy centres. Himanta Biswa Sarma is the template. He joined the BJP from the Congress in 2015 and spent years constructing the occasion’s footprint throughout the northeast as convener of the North East Democratic Alliance. By the point the BJP received Assam in 2021, he was the clear frontrunner for the highest spot. He was the explanation the occasion had the numbers to win. The central management recognised that and acted accordingly.
Suvendu Adhikari’s path to the Bengal CM publish follows the identical logic.Adhikari’s political profession started within the Congress earlier than he moved together with his household to the TMC when Mamata Banerjee fashioned the occasion in 1998. He was on the coronary heart of the Nandigram agitation in 2007, the motion that broke the Left Entrance’s grip on rural Bengal and made Mamata a real mass chief. He received the Tamluk Lok Sabha seat in 2009 and held it in 2014. In 2016, he shifted to state politics, received Nandigram and went into Mamata’s cupboard as Transport Minister, later additionally dealing with Irrigation and Water Assets. His break with the TMC in late 2020, pushed partially by his discomfort with the rising function of Mamata’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee throughout the occasion, was the one greatest jolt the TMC obtained earlier than the 2021 elections. He joined the BJP at a rally in Midnapore alongside Amit Shah in December 2020.Then got here the defining moments. In 2021, he contested in opposition to Mamata Banerjee in Nandigram, her chosen constituency, and defeated her by 1,956 votes. 5 years later, in 2026, he did it once more, this time in Bhabanipur, Mamata’s conventional stronghold, beating her by over 15,000 votes. He additionally received Nandigram concurrently.
The within man benefit
What makes Adhikari’s appointment notably important is not only what he did to the TMC, however what he is aware of about it.He spent over 20 years constructing the Trinamool Congress from the bottom up. He is aware of how rural networks operate, how district energy buildings are wired, and who the important thing operators are on the sales space stage throughout a number of districts.This issues enormously for what comes subsequent. The BJP’s victory in Bengal just isn’t the top of the story; it’s the starting of a consolidation problem. The TMC’s grassroots organisation, constructed painstakingly over 15 years, didn’t disappear in a single day when it misplaced the polls. The occasion staff, the district leaders, the native strongmen who ran issues below the TMC, they’re all nonetheless there, and plenty of of them are actually taking a look at which method the wind is blowing.
What’s subsequent
In the long run, the distinction between Bengal and Kerala was probably not about Suvendu Adhikari or VD Satheesan. It was about what occurs inside two events the second victory arrives.The BJP treats energy like a system. Selections are centralised, hierarchy is evident and uncertainty is minimised. Generally meaning shock chief ministers. Generally, as in Assam and Bengal, it means recognising when a pacesetter has develop into too politically necessary to disregard. However both method, the occasion strikes shortly, initiatives authority and ensures the main target stays on the organisation.The Congress nonetheless struggles with that intuition. Even after main victories, it typically seems trapped in negotiation, balancing factions as a substitute of controlling them. What ought to seem like confidence as a substitute begins to resemble hesitation. The BJP treats energy as one thing to be seized and organised; the Congress nonetheless treats it as one thing to be negotiated and shared. One has a system. The opposite has a dialog.
