June 2026 set to be fifth driest-ever since 1901; monsoon advance over elements of north probably in early July | India Information
3 min learnUp to date: Jun 28, 2026 11:26 PM IST
With greater than 43% rainfall deficit, June 2026, the primary month of monsoon, is now prone to emerge because the fifth driest-ever with lower than 4 mm of rainfall recorded on a mean each day during the last one week.
June was anticipated to convey 165.3 mm of rainfall, which is the long-period common, for the nation as a complete. Since 1901, when rainfall information for India can be found, June rainfall has been beneath 100 mm just for 4 years — 1905, 1926, 2009 and 2014. The driest June was in 2009 when India acquired simply 87.5 mm rainfall.
This yr, till Sunday, the nation has recorded solely 85.2 mm rainfall.
Such a big deficit for June is prone to pressure a reassessment of the seasonal forecast. The India Meteorological Division (IMD) had predicted 92% rainfall for June, and 90% for the four-month monsoon season. The remaining months are prone to get impacted by the El Nino which is but to achieve its peak, and is continuous to achieve in power.
Three of the 4 years which noticed June rainfall beneath 100 mm — 1926, 2009 and 2014 — had been additionally affected by El Nino. Nevertheless, in 1926, the seasonal rainfall overcame the June deficit and ended up being 11% greater than regular. In 2009 and 2014, seasonal rainfall was beneath 90%.
As has been reported by The Indian Specific, El Nino had a marginal function to play in suppressing June rain. The ocean-atmospheric interplay within the Pacific Ocean that impacts weathers world wide had emerged across the first week of June, however its influence over the Indian area will develop into evident after a while.
The subdued rain in June may very well be attributed to different causes, each native in addition to world. For many days of the month, monsoonal winds remained largely weak. After monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, its progress remained stalled throughout June 8 – 15, and picked up solely after June 18. In addition to, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a rain-bearing cloud system shifting within the equatorial area — was not within the beneficial part to assist the monsoons. Dry northerly winds that prevailed there dominated over the area and prevented the weak monsoon winds from advancing.
Story continues beneath this advert
The monsoon advance over Delhi and main elements of north India stays delayed and is anticipated now in early July.
Importantly, late-Might and June remained devoid of any low strain programs or cyclones within the North Indian Ocean Basin. Cyclones or low strain programs that kind within the late pre-monsoon interval usually convey alongside moisture and assist the monsoon acquire momentum throughout its onset and advance part.
Might occurs to be some of the cyclone-prone months for India. In the previous couple of years, a minimum of one main cyclone emerged yearly within the Indian Ocean area in late Might or early June — Remal in 2024, Mocha and Biparjoy in 2023, Asani in 2022, and Tauktae in 2021. In 2025 and 2026, there was no improvement of cyclonic storms within the pre-monsoon interval.
