Ahmedabad Times

West Bengal has turned saffron. Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year rule has ended and Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) is all set to kind its first authorities within the state.So, what contributed to this decisive political shift within the state’s electoral panorama? Nicely, there have been a number of elements that contributed to the end result, however the one which was most contentious was the revision of the electoral rolls – SIR.

How SIR turned the defining problem of the elections

The Particular Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls emerged as a central and deeply contested issue shaping the 2026 West Bengal electoral contest. The train led to the removing of near 91 lakh names — roughly 12% of the voters — considerably altering the voter base forward of polling. Of those, over 60 lakh have been categorised as deceased, whereas the standing of 27 lakh remained pending or underneath scrutiny.In response to varied studies, a big proportion of these affected have been Muslims, whereas sections of the Matua group and plenty of Hindus have been additionally impacted. BJP framed the SIR as a obligatory clean-up of electoral rolls geared toward eradicating ‘unlawful’ or duplicate entries. However Mamata’s get together countered this and described the train as systematic disenfranchisement resulting in open confrontation.No matter these competing narratives, the dimensions and unfold of deletions reshaped voting traits in a way that coincided with BJP’s surge throughout the state. The full voter base dropped from over 7.66 crore to round 7.04 crore, excluding these nonetheless underneath adjudication.

Electoral knowledge: Mapping SIR deletions to outcomes

A more in-depth take a look at constituency-level outcomes suggests a powerful correlation between SIR-linked deletions and BJP’s good points.BJP improved its efficiency throughout seats that witnessed sizeable deletions, regardless of whether or not the variety of names eliminated exceeded 25,000 or fell beneath that threshold. In 169 meeting constituencies the place greater than 25,000 names have been deleted, TMC had dominated in 2021, profitable 128 seats in comparison with BJP’s 41. This time, nonetheless, the steadiness shifted considerably.Within the remaining 124 seats, the place deletions have been decrease than 25,000, BJP’s tally rose dramatically from 36 in 2021 to 108 — marking a three-fold improve. This means that get together’s good points weren’t restricted to areas with the very best deletions however prolonged throughout a broader electoral spectrum influenced by the revision train.

Among the many 38 constituencies the place ‘logical discrepancy’ deletions have been the very best, TMC had received 34 seats in 2021. Within the present election, its tally dropped to 22, underlining the erosion of its earlier dominance in these pockets.Even in high-deletion zones, nonetheless, outcomes weren’t uniform. Among the many six constituencies with the very best SIR deletions, TMC managed to retain solely 4 — Chowringhee, Shamsherganj, Metiaburuz and Kolkata Port — whereas BJP captured Jorasanko and Howrah North. Notably, all six seats had been received by the Mamata-led get together within the earlier election.Aside from Jorasanko, BJP made vital inroads in Kolkata and bordering areas, securing victories in Maniktala, Shyampukur and Cossipore-Belgachhia in Kolkata North, and prolonged its good points to Rashbehari, Behala East, Bidhannagar, Baranagar, Dum Dum, Dum Dum North and Rajarhat-Gopalpur. It additionally received seats in Behala West, Tollygunge and Jadavpur — all constituencies that had recorded over 25,000 deletions and have been beforehand held by Trinamool.Farakka was one of many exceptions. Regardless of witnessing over 25,000 deletions, BJP did not win the seat. Congress candidate Motab Shaikh, whose identify had initially been eliminated throughout the SIR, efficiently appealed via an appellate tribunal — one among 19 arrange following Supreme Court docket instructions — and secured restoration of his voting rights. He went on to win the seat by beating BJP candidate Sunil Chowdhuri with a margin of 8,193 votes.

Margins, deletions and electoral impression

The connection between deletions and victory margins additional underscores SIR’s impression. Of the 187 seats that noticed over 5,000 names deleted, BJP received 119. In these constituencies, the variety of excluded voters exceeded the margin of victory in 47 seats.Inside BJP’s tally of 119 seats, 28 recorded deletions larger than the victory margin of its candidates. Of those, 26 had been received by Trinamool in 2021.Among the many 20 constituencies with the very best variety of deletions after adjudication, TMC received 13, BJP six and the Congress one. Nevertheless, within the 2021 elections, all 20 had been secured by the Trinamool, highlighting the relative drawback it confronted this time.

BJP’s ‘safety fortress’ to make sure easy SIR course of

The SIR train was accompanied by an unprecedented safety deployment. Over 2.4 lakh personnel from Central Armed Police Forces have been stationed throughout West Bengal — greater than 3 times the degrees seen in 2021 — creating what the BJP described as a ‘safety fortress’.The in depth deployment, coupled with tighter oversight by the Election Fee of India, turned one other key pillar in enabling what the BJP described as “free and truthful voting” in a politically risky state.At one stage, Mamata approached the Supreme Court docket over the usage of solely central authorities workers as vote-counting supervisors, however the court docket declined to intervene.

The Matua issue: Id, anxiousness and consolidation

The Matua group emerged as one other crucial electoral variable formed by the SIR train. Regardless of discontent over large-scale deletions and anxieties surrounding citizenship documentation underneath the CAA, BJP retained its foothold in Matua-dominated areas equivalent to Bongaon and Nadia.The removing of roughly 1.2 lakh names underneath SIR triggered social and political tensions in these areas. In Nadia’s six meeting constituencies, over 90% of these positioned underneath adjudication didn’t make it to the ultimate electoral rolls. An analogous sample was noticed in Bongaon, the place deletion charges ranged from 67% to 88%.Bagdah turned a focus of this contest, witnessing a high-profile battle throughout the influential Thakurbari household. BJP candidate Soma Thakur defeated Trinamool MLA Madhuparna Thakur by 34,321 votes. BJP additionally retained Bongaon Uttar and secured Haringhata with substantial margins.Regardless of issues over exclusion, the Matua voters — a marginalised Hindu sect primarily comprising the Namasudra scheduled caste group — appeared to consolidate behind BJP.

Disenfranchisement vs electoral integrity

Clearly, the SIR train was essentially the most dominant narrative all through the elections and can proceed to be debated for occasions to come back. The opposition sees SIR as a software to focus on and purge its voters, whereas BJP justifies it as a much-needed train to cleanse electoral rolls.