Ahmedabad Times

As votes are counted throughout West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry on Monday, fairness merchants are making ready for what might be a unstable begin to the buying and selling week. Counting for 824 meeting seats begins at 8 am, with early developments anticipated inside the first two hours and clearer leads possible by late morning.

Whereas state elections usually set off sharp intraday strikes, analysts say buyers ought to look past political headlines and deal with broader macro indicators earlier than taking aggressive positions.

Listed here are 10 issues buyers ought to observe as we speak earlier than inserting trades on Monday

1) West Bengal stays the most important market set off

Exit polls recommend the BJP may emerge as the only largest pressure in West Bengal with round 159 seats, above the bulk mark of 148, whereas the TMC is projected close to 127 seats. A stronger-than-expected BJP exhibiting may enhance sentiment for infrastructure, railways, energy and japanese India capex themes.

Ishan Tanna of Ashika Capital mentioned higher Centre-state alignment in Bengal may enhance venture execution and coverage implementation, which can assist capex-linked sectors.
2) Assam is essentially priced in
Exit polls present the BJP-led alliance retaining Assam with round 90 seats within the 126-member meeting. Since continuity is already anticipated, analysts don’t see Assam alone as a significant standalone market set off.
3) Tamil Nadu and Kerala largely keep away from nationwide points
The DMK-led alliance is anticipated to retain Tamil Nadu with round 128 seats, whereas Kerala may see the Congress-led UDF cross the bulk mark. Any shock deviation right here might set off sector-specific reactions, particularly in state-linked infrastructure, ports and industrial names.
4) Not chasing the primary opening transfer
Nitant Darekar of Bonanza mentioned election consequence days usually create headline volatility however not essentially sturdy developments. “Most exit ballot outcomes seem priced in. Merchants ought to keep away from chasing sharp opening strikes as these usually reverse after the primary hour,” he mentioned.

5) Nifty might swing 1-1.5% both approach
Paresh Bhagat, Chairman of Mangal Keshav Monetary Providers, expects contained volatility. “Nifty may transfer round 1% to 1.5% relying on whether or not last outcomes are in step with or totally different from exit polls, however scope for a significant shock seems to be restricted,” he mentioned.

6) Crude oil stays the most important threat
Brent crude is buying and selling above $113 per barrel amid the Iran battle and transport issues across the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say this stays a much bigger market driver than election outcomes.

Hariprasad Ok of Livelong Wealth mentioned crude stays “the only most important macro variable” for Indian markets.

7) Overseas fund flows
FIIs offered Rs 70,100 crore value of Indian equities in April, marking their tenth straight month of promoting. In calendar 2026, international buyers have already pulled practically Rs 2.4 lakh crore from Indian equities. If election outcomes fail to enhance sentiment, FII promoting may proceed.

8) Home establishments are nonetheless absorbing stress
DIIs invested about Rs 51,000 crore in April, cushioning the influence of international outflows. Whether or not home shopping for continues subsequent week can be intently watched.

9) Technical ranges
The Nifty closed Friday at 23,997, slightly below the important thing 24,000 mark. Analysts say 23,900-23,850 stays rapid assist, whereas 24,200–24,300 is the primary resistance zone. In the meantime, a breakout above 24,300 may set off brief masking, the index beneath 23,900 might invite recent promoting.

10) Markets normally transfer again to world cues shortly
Market professional Ajay Bagga mentioned state election outcomes not often have a long-lasting influence. “The market might react for a day or two, however then it goes again to grease costs, FPI flows and the rupee. These stay the three large variables,” he mentioned.

Indian equities head into the occasion on weak footing. The Nifty misplaced 0.73% final week, whereas the Sensex slipped practically 1% amid elevated crude costs, international promoting and geopolitical uncertainty.

(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of Financial Instances)